Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Abigail Hird; Laura Kreiling

Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Abigail Hird, Laura Kreiling

Design, Manufacturing And Engineering Management

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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Abstract

Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Group Decision & Negotiation
Place of Publication	Washington
Publication status	Published - 20 Jun 2016
Event	16th Group Decision and Negotiation International Conference - Western Washington University, Bellingham, United States Duration: 20 Jun 2016 → 24 Jun 2016 https://www.informs.org/Community/GDN/GDN-Conferences

Conference

Conference	16th Group Decision and Negotiation International Conference
Abbreviated title	GDN2016
Country/Territory	United States
City	Bellingham
Period	20/06/16 → 24/06/16
Internet address	https://www.informs.org/Community/GDN/GDN-Conferences

Keywords

resource forecasting
Delphi method
expert judgement
group concensus
collaborative decision-making process

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Hird-Kreiling-GDN2017-Expert-judgement-in-resource-forecastingAccepted author manuscript, 454 KB

Cite this

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title = "Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus",

abstract = "Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.",

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booktitle = "Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Group Decision & Negotiation",

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T1 - Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

AU - Hird, Abigail

AU - Kreiling, Laura

PY - 2016/6/20

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N2 - Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.

AB - Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.

KW - resource forecasting

KW - Delphi method

KW - expert judgement

KW - group concensus

KW - collaborative decision-making process

UR - https://wp.wwu.edu/gdn2016/

M3 - Conference contribution book

BT - Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Group Decision & Negotiation

CY - Washington

T2 - 16th Group Decision and Negotiation International Conference

Y2 - 20 June 2016 through 24 June 2016

ER -

Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Abstract

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Keywords

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KTP - Alexander Dennis

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Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Projects

KTP - Alexander Dennis

Cite this