Expert judgement in resource forecasting – the use of the Delphi method to achieve group consensus

Abigail Hird, Laura Kreiling

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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Abstract

Expert judgement is used in a novel resource forecasting method to build models that forecast resource requirements. In this study, a collaborative decision-making process is deployed to ensure user acceptance in an empirical setting with limited legacy data for model validation. The Delphi method allowed facilitating this process and to achieve group consensus during estimate collection. With action research, Delphi parameters are adjusted in three concurrent case studies involving different expert groups. This study shows that Delphi is a useful and valid approach to provide acceptable degree validation for quantitative empirical expert models if only limited legacy data is available for model validation.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 16th International Conference on Group Decision & Negotiation
Place of PublicationWashington
Publication statusPublished - 20 Jun 2016
Event16th Group Decision and Negotiation International Conference - Western Washington University, Bellingham, United States
Duration: 20 Jun 201624 Jun 2016
https://www.informs.org/Community/GDN/GDN-Conferences

Conference

Conference16th Group Decision and Negotiation International Conference
Abbreviated titleGDN2016
CountryUnited States
CityBellingham
Period20/06/1624/06/16
Internet address

Keywords

  • resource forecasting
  • Delphi method
  • expert judgement
  • group concensus
  • collaborative decision-making process

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