Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights from the application of the Delphi method

Abigail Hird, Laura Kreiling

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper

Abstract

Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.
LanguageEnglish
Pages1-10
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 17 Jun 2016
Event23rd EurOMA Conference - Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway
Duration: 19 Jun 2016 → 22 Jun 2016
http://www.euroma2016.org/

Conference

Conference23rd EurOMA Conference
Abbreviated titleEurOMA 2016
CountryNorway
CityTrondheim
Period19/06/16 → 22/06/16
Internet address

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Industry

Keywords

  • expert judgement
  • Delphi method
  • resource forecasting

Cite this

Hird, A., & Kreiling, L. (2016). Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights from the application of the Delphi method. 1-10. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.
Hird, Abigail ; Kreiling, Laura. / Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights from the application of the Delphi method. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.10 p.
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Hird, A & Kreiling, L 2016, 'Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights from the application of the Delphi method' Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway, 19/06/16 - 22/06/16, pp. 1-10.

Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights from the application of the Delphi method. / Hird, Abigail; Kreiling, Laura.

2016. 1-10 Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper

TY - CONF

T1 - Expert judgement in resource forecasting

T2 - insights from the application of the Delphi method

AU - Hird, Abigail

AU - Kreiling, Laura

PY - 2016/6/17

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N2 - Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.

AB - Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.

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M3 - Paper

SP - 1

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Hird A, Kreiling L. Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights from the application of the Delphi method. 2016. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.

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