Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights form the application of the Delphi method

Abigail Hird, Laura Kreiling

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.

Conference

Conference23rd EurOMA Conference
Abbreviated titleEurOMA 2016
CountryNorway
CityTrondheim
Period19/06/1622/06/16
Internet address

Fingerprint

Resources
Delphi method
Expert judgment
Industry
Expert knowledge
Prediction
Acceptance
Delphi

Keywords

  • expert judgement
  • Delphi method
  • resource forecasting
  • automotive industry

Cite this

Hird, A., & Kreiling, L. (2016). Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights form the application of the Delphi method. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.
Hird, Abigail ; Kreiling, Laura. / Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights form the application of the Delphi method. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.
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author = "Abigail Hird and Laura Kreiling",
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month = "6",
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language = "English",
note = "23rd EurOMA Conference, EurOMA 2016 ; Conference date: 19-06-2016 Through 22-06-2016",
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Hird, A & Kreiling, L 2016, 'Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights form the application of the Delphi method' Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway, 19/06/16 - 22/06/16, .

Expert judgement in resource forecasting : insights form the application of the Delphi method. / Hird, Abigail; Kreiling, Laura.

2016. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Expert judgement in resource forecasting

T2 - insights form the application of the Delphi method

AU - Hird, Abigail

AU - Kreiling, Laura

PY - 2016/6/21

Y1 - 2016/6/21

N2 - Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.

AB - Through application in a world-leading automotive business, this paper explores the practicalities of applying a new method for forecasting resource requirements in the absence of data. The method involves a one off effort to capture expert knowledge in a very structured fashion leading to the formation of regression equations for prediction. Creating such models creates a new conundrum: how can quantitative forecasting models, constructed through structured expert estimations, be validated and accepted in the absence of data? We employ Delphi and find that, with adaptation, it can lead to acceptance of the models generated using the new data-less method.

KW - expert judgement

KW - Delphi method

KW - resource forecasting

KW - automotive industry

UR - http://www.euroma2016.org/

M3 - Paper

ER -

Hird A, Kreiling L. Expert judgement in resource forecasting: insights form the application of the Delphi method. 2016. Paper presented at 23rd EurOMA Conference, Trondheim, Norway.