Expected utility theory for the optimization of bridge management

Carlo Cappello, Riccardo Zandonini, Daniele Zonta

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

Decisions concerning bridge management often rely on experience, engineering judgement and heuristics. In this contribution, with the aid of a real-life case study, we show how a bridge management strategy can be optimized scientifically by applying expected utility theory, a framework already used in econometrics and medicine in order to identify optimal actions in agreement with a risk profile. We show how the engineering decision problem is modelled and how expected utility theory is implemented in order to obtain a set of decision rules that enables the decision maker to identify the optimal action based on structural reliability and costs. The results show that the implementation of expected utility theory in ordinary civil engineering problems is feasible and provides results based on the risk profile taken into account during the calibration of the model.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIABSE Conference Guangzhou 2016
Subtitle of host publicationBridges and Structures Sustainability - Seeking Intelligent Solutions
Pages1020-1027
Number of pages8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 May 2016
Externally publishedYes
EventIABSE Conference, Guangzhou 2016: Bridges and Structures Sustainability - Seeking Intelligent Solutions - Guangzhou, China
Duration: 8 May 201611 May 2016

Conference

ConferenceIABSE Conference, Guangzhou 2016: Bridges and Structures Sustainability - Seeking Intelligent Solutions
CountryChina
CityGuangzhou
Period8/05/1611/05/16

Keywords

  • bridge management optimization
  • expected utility theory
  • structural reliability

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  • Cite this

    Cappello, C., Zandonini, R., & Zonta, D. (2016). Expected utility theory for the optimization of bridge management. In IABSE Conference Guangzhou 2016: Bridges and Structures Sustainability - Seeking Intelligent Solutions (pp. 1020-1027) https://doi.org/10.2749/222137816819259473