Evaluation of wind power forecasts – an up-to-date view

Jakob W. Messner, Pierre Pinson, Jethro Browell, Mathias B. Bjerregård, Irene Schicker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)
2 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Wind power forecast evaluation is of key importance for forecast provider selection, forecast quality control and model development. While forecasts are most often evaluated based on squared or absolute errors, these error measures do not always adequately reflect the loss functions and true expectations of the forecast user, neither do they provide enough information for the desired evaluation task. Over the last decade, research in forecast verification has intensified and a number of verification frameworks and diagnostic tools have been proposed. However, the corresponding literature is generally very technical and most often dedicated to forecast model developers. This can make forecast users struggle to select the most appropriate verification tools for their application while not fully appraising subtleties related to their application and interpretation. This paper revisits the most common verification tools from a forecast user perspective and discusses their suitability for different application examples as well as evaluation setup design and significance of evaluation results.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1461-1481
Number of pages21
JournalWind Energy
Volume23
Issue number6
Early online date12 Mar 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 30 Jun 2020

Keywords

  • wind power
  • forecast evaluation
  • evaluation metrics
  • testing forecast performance

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  • Projects

    Datasets

    Activities

    • 1 Membership of network

    IEA Wind Task 36: Wind Power Foreacsting (External organisation)

    Jethro Browell (Advisor)

    20192021

    Activity: Membership typesMembership of network

    Cite this

    Messner, J. W., Pinson, P., Browell, J., Bjerregård, M. B., & Schicker, I. (2020). Evaluation of wind power forecasts – an up-to-date view. Wind Energy, 23(6), 1461-1481. https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2497