### Abstract

We have estimated the value of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Brazil and calculated the expected number of cases of microcephaly in newborns as a result of women infected with Zika during pregnancy. We started off with a non-age-structured model then introduced age-structure into the model.

However in reality seasonality, in particular temperature and rainfall, have a great impact on the population size of A. aegypti. Hence we repeat both the non-age-structured and age-structured analyses introducing seasonality into the A. aegypti birth function to model the effect of these environmental factors.

Original language | English |
---|---|

Pages (from-to) | 8217–8242 |

Number of pages | 26 |

Journal | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |

Volume | 16 |

Issue number | 6 |

DOIs | |

Publication status | Published - 16 Sep 2019 |

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### Keywords

- Zika virus
- microcephaly
- dengue
- aedes aegypti
- parameter estimation
- least square estimation
- ordinary differential equations
- partial differential equations

### Cite this

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*Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering*, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 8217–8242. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2019416

**Estimation of the expected number of cases of microcephaly in Brazil as a result of Zika.** / Liang, Yanfeng; Greenhalgh, David.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimation of the expected number of cases of microcephaly in Brazil as a result of Zika

AU - Liang, Yanfeng

AU - Greenhalgh, David

PY - 2019/9/16

Y1 - 2019/9/16

N2 - In this paper we have adapted a delayed dengue model to Zika. By assuming that the epidemic starts by a single infected individual entering a disease-free population at some initial time t0 we have used the least squares parameter estimation technique in R to estimate the initial time t0 using observed Zika data from Brazil as well as the transmission probabilities of Zika in Brazil between humans and mosquitoes and vice-versa. Different values of Aedes aegypti (A. aegypti) biting rate are used throughout the paper.We have estimated the value of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Brazil and calculated the expected number of cases of microcephaly in newborns as a result of women infected with Zika during pregnancy. We started off with a non-age-structured model then introduced age-structure into the model.However in reality seasonality, in particular temperature and rainfall, have a great impact on the population size of A. aegypti. Hence we repeat both the non-age-structured and age-structured analyses introducing seasonality into the A. aegypti birth function to model the effect of these environmental factors.

AB - In this paper we have adapted a delayed dengue model to Zika. By assuming that the epidemic starts by a single infected individual entering a disease-free population at some initial time t0 we have used the least squares parameter estimation technique in R to estimate the initial time t0 using observed Zika data from Brazil as well as the transmission probabilities of Zika in Brazil between humans and mosquitoes and vice-versa. Different values of Aedes aegypti (A. aegypti) biting rate are used throughout the paper.We have estimated the value of the basic reproduction number for Zika in Brazil and calculated the expected number of cases of microcephaly in newborns as a result of women infected with Zika during pregnancy. We started off with a non-age-structured model then introduced age-structure into the model.However in reality seasonality, in particular temperature and rainfall, have a great impact on the population size of A. aegypti. Hence we repeat both the non-age-structured and age-structured analyses introducing seasonality into the A. aegypti birth function to model the effect of these environmental factors.

KW - Zika virus

KW - microcephaly

KW - dengue

KW - aedes aegypti

KW - parameter estimation

KW - least square estimation

KW - ordinary differential equations

KW - partial differential equations

U2 - 10.3934/mbe.2019416

DO - 10.3934/mbe.2019416

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 8217

EP - 8242

JO - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

JF - Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

SN - 1547-1063

IS - 6

ER -