Estimating the predicted environmental concentration of the residues of veterinary medicines: should uncertainty and variability be ignored?

Louise Anne Kelly, M.A. Taylor, M.. Wooldridge

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

European directives require that all veterinary medicines be assessed to determine the harmful effects that their use may have on the environment. Fundamental to this assessment is the calculation of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC), which is dependent on the type of drug, its associated treatment characteristics, and the route by which residues enter the environment. Deterministic models for the calculation of the PEC have previously been presented. In this article, the inclusion of variability and uncertainty within such models is introduced. In particular, models for the calculation of the PEC for residues excreted directly onto pasture by grazing animals are considered and comparison of deterministic and stochastic results suggest that uncertainty and variability cannot be ignored.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)489-496
Number of pages8
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume23
Issue number3
Early online date29 May 2003
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2003

Keywords

  • Predicted environmental concentration
  • uncertainty
  • variability

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