Estimating risk when zero events have been observed

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Assessing the risk of complications or adverse events following an intervention presents challenges when they have not yet occurred. Suppose, for instance, a chronic shortage of cardiac telemetry beds has prompted a hospital to implement a new policy that places low-risk patients admitted to ‘rule out myocardial infarction’ in regular ward beds (ie, with no telemetry). After 6 months and the admission of 100 such patients, no cardiac arrests or other untoward events have occurred. This absence of harm (ie, zero adverse events) indicates a low risk, but clearly we cannot infer a risk of zero on the basis of only 100 patients. But, what can we say about the true underlying risk?
LanguageEnglish
Pages1042-1043
Number of pages2
JournalBMJ Quality and Safety
Volume22
Issue number12
Early online date19 Aug 2013
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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Telemetry
Heart Arrest
Myocardial Infarction
Adverse events
Admission
Myocardial infarction
Shortage

Keywords

  • risk management
  • cardiac telemetry beds
  • hospitals

Cite this

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Estimating risk when zero events have been observed. / Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew; Dawson, Jesse.

In: BMJ Quality and Safety, Vol. 22, No. 12, 2013, p. 1042-1043.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Revie, Matthew

AU - Dawson, Jesse

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