Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation

Juan Alcalde, Stephanie Flude, Mark Wilkinson, Gareth Johnson, Katriona Edlmann, Clare E. Bond, Vivian Scott, Stuart M.V. Gilfillan, Xènia Ogaya, R. Stuart Haszeldine

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Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Article number2201
Number of pages13
JournalNature Communications
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 Jun 2018

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Carbon capture
Climate
climate
estimating
Carbon
Climate Change
Paris
Cost reduction
Atmosphere
Climate change
Uncertainty
leakage
Costs and Cost Analysis
cost reduction
carbon
climate change
estimates
confidence
atmospheres

Keywords

  • carbon capture
  • carbon storage
  • climate mitigation
  • CO2

Cite this

Alcalde, J., Flude, S., Wilkinson, M., Johnson, G., Edlmann, K., Bond, C. E., ... Haszeldine, R. S. (2018). Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation. Nature Communications, 9, [2201]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1
Alcalde, Juan ; Flude, Stephanie ; Wilkinson, Mark ; Johnson, Gareth ; Edlmann, Katriona ; Bond, Clare E. ; Scott, Vivian ; Gilfillan, Stuart M.V. ; Ogaya, Xènia ; Haszeldine, R. Stuart. / Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation. In: Nature Communications. 2018 ; Vol. 9.
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Alcalde, J, Flude, S, Wilkinson, M, Johnson, G, Edlmann, K, Bond, CE, Scott, V, Gilfillan, SMV, Ogaya, X & Haszeldine, RS 2018, 'Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation', Nature Communications, vol. 9, 2201. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04423-1

Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation. / Alcalde, Juan; Flude, Stephanie; Wilkinson, Mark; Johnson, Gareth; Edlmann, Katriona; Bond, Clare E.; Scott, Vivian; Gilfillan, Stuart M.V.; Ogaya, Xènia; Haszeldine, R. Stuart.

In: Nature Communications, Vol. 9, 2201, 12.06.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Alcalde, Juan

AU - Flude, Stephanie

AU - Wilkinson, Mark

AU - Johnson, Gareth

AU - Edlmann, Katriona

AU - Bond, Clare E.

AU - Scott, Vivian

AU - Gilfillan, Stuart M.V.

AU - Ogaya, Xènia

AU - Haszeldine, R. Stuart

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AB - Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.

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