Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group; COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium; William Waites

doi:10.1126/science.abg3055

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, William Waites

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Original language	English
Article number	eabg3055
Number of pages	10
Journal	Science
Volume	372
Issue number	6538
Early online date	3 Mar 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055
Publication status	Published - 9 Apr 2021
Externally published	Yes

Funding

Supported by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Research England, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation (NIHR200929), and UK Medical Research Council (MRC) (MC_PC_19065) (N.G.D.); Wellcome Trust (WT) (210758/Z/18/Z) (S.A.); European Commission (EC) (EpiPose 101003688) (R.C.B.); Global Challenges Research Fund managed through Research Councils UK and the Economic and Social Research Council (RECAP ES/P010873/1) (C.I.J.); WT (206250/Z/17/Z) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (A.J.K.); WT (210758/Z/18/Z) (J.D.M.); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (OPP1184344) and UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)/WT (221303/Z/ 20/Z) (C.A.B.P.); WT (206250/Z/17/Z) (T.W.R.); EC (EpiPose 101003688) (A.G.); NIHR (COV0335) and MRC (MR/V027956/1) (W.W.); FCDO/WT (221303/Z/20/Z) and Elrha's Research for Health in Humanitarian Crises Programme funded by FCDO, WT, and NIHR (K.v.Z.); Royal Society-WT Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 218554/Z/19/Z (K.D.-O.); UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship (MR/ S017968/1) (R.K.); Health Data Research UK (MR/S003975/1), MRC (MC_PC 19065), and NIHR (NIHR200908) (R.M.E.); WT (210758/Z/18/Z) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (S.F.); BMGF (INV-003174, INV-016832), NIHR (16/137/109, NIHR200929, NIHR200908), and EC (EpiPose 101003688) (M.J.); European Research Council (757688) (K.E.A.); and EC (EpiPose 101003688) and NIHR (NIHR200908) (W.J.E.). COG-UK is supported by funding from the MRC, part of UKRI; the NIHR; and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

Keywords

SARS CoV-2
transmissibility
respiratory disease

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.abg3055Licence: CC BY 4.0

Davies-etal-Science-2021-Estimated-transmissibility-and-impact-of-SARS-CoV-2Final published version, 17.2 MBLicence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

@article{fae73c5232b341e0badbed62197b94dd,

title = "Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England",

abstract = "A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.",

keywords = "SARS CoV-2, transmissibility, respiratory disease",

author = "{CMMID COVID-19 Working Group} and {COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium} and Davies, {Nicholas G.} and Sam Abbott and Barnard, {Rosanna C.} and Jarvis, {Christopher I.} and Kucharski, {Adam J.} and Munday, {James D.} and Pearson, {Carl A.B.} and Russell, {Timothy W.} and Tully, {Damien C.} and Washburne, {Alex D.} and Tom Wenseleers and Amy Gimma and William Waites and Wong, {Kerry L.M.} and {van Zandvoort}, Kevin and Silverman, {Justin D.} and Karla Diaz-Ordaz and Ruth Keogh and Eggo, {Rosalind M.} and Sebastian Funk and Mark Jit and Atkins, {Katherine E.} and Edmunds, {W. John}",

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doi = "10.1126/science.abg3055",

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T1 - Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

AU - CMMID COVID-19 Working Group

AU - COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium

AU - Davies, Nicholas G.

AU - Abbott, Sam

AU - Barnard, Rosanna C.

AU - Jarvis, Christopher I.

AU - Kucharski, Adam J.

AU - Munday, James D.

AU - Pearson, Carl A.B.

AU - Russell, Timothy W.

AU - Tully, Damien C.

AU - Washburne, Alex D.

AU - Wenseleers, Tom

AU - Gimma, Amy

AU - Waites, William

AU - Wong, Kerry L.M.

AU - van Zandvoort, Kevin

AU - Silverman, Justin D.

AU - Diaz-Ordaz, Karla

AU - Keogh, Ruth

AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Jit, Mark

AU - Atkins, Katherine E.

AU - Edmunds, W. John

PY - 2021/4/9

Y1 - 2021/4/9

N2 - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

AB - A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

KW - SARS CoV-2

KW - transmissibility

KW - respiratory disease

U2 - 10.1126/science.abg3055

DO - 10.1126/science.abg3055

M3 - Article

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AN - SCOPUS:85103486726

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 372

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6538

M1 - eabg3055

ER -

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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