Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important 'weak signals'

Emily Rowe, George Wright, James Derbyshire

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    6 Citations (Scopus)
    28 Downloads (Pure)

    Abstract

    This paper documents the Intuitive Logics scenario planning process and its relationship with horizon scanning activity in order to evaluate the separate and joint usefulness of these methods for anticipating the future. The specific objectives of this paper are to: (i) identify and differentiate scenario planning and horizon scanning methodologies (ii) discuss & evaluate their analytic underpinnings, and (iii) critically appraise their separate and combined value and effectiveness in relation to enhancing organizational preparedness for the future. Our analysis culminates with specifications to (iv) enhance the identification of ’weak signals’ in Horizon Scanning by utilizing a systematically broadened range of both negatively-valenced and positively-valenced scenario storylines.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)224-235
    Number of pages11
    JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
    Volume125
    Early online date23 Aug 2017
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2017

    Keywords

    • horizon scanning
    • scenario planning
    • weak signals

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