Enhanced, risk-based system development process: a case study from the Belgian transmission network

A large share of renewable generation raises some unique challenges and is forcing change in the operation and planning of electricity transmission systems. In this paper, using real transmission network data representing a part of the Belgian network, the need for building a large set of credible future operating conditions to identify and validate system development decisions is demonstrated. The paper argues that the traditional approach of checking system development options on a few selected operating conditions is no longer adequate in a power system with high penetration of variable generation. An application of a clustering algorithm is demonstrated to build a representative set of operating conditions for system development that not only gives better representation of future operation, but also provides a system development planner with greater confidence with respect to investments that are likely to be necessary. The paper describes the way in which operability of the future system is evaluated and possible need for reinforcement is identified. A discussion is presented of the meeting of demand under initially intact network conditions and while facilitating maintenance outages securely.