Electricity Network Scenarios for Great Britain in 2050

This report sets out five plausible electricity network scenarios for Great Britain in 2050. It has been prepared by us for Ofgem in the context of their Long-Term Electricity Network Scenarios (LENS) project, and has benefited from several rounds of stakeholder consultation, workshops and peer review.

Ofgem leads the LENS project and has facilitated the development of the scenarios in this report through public consultations and workshops and by providing additional guidance and input for our consideration. Peer review has been undertaken by Jim Watson of SPRU (Science and Technology Policy Research Unit) at the University of Sussex and Michael Pollitt of Cambridge University and the Judge Business School.

Ofgem‟s main objective for the LENS project has been to facilitate the development of a range of plausible electricity network scenarios for Great Britain for 2050, around which industry participants, Government, Ofgem and other stakeholders can discuss longer term network issues. The project has also set out to: quantify the scenarios through „energy system‟ modelling; develop a consistent set of „way-markers‟ for 2025 (or staging points on the route towards 2050); and to establish views on the scenarios‟ implications for networks and their regulation. On this latter aspect, Ofgem intends to publish its own views in due course.

Scenarios are a useful way of grouping and presenting the major drivers and issues that are likely to affect future GB electricity networks, such that valuable insights are gained and „strategic conversations‟ can emerge. The scenarios presented in this report have been developed according to a robust methodology, and provide stakeholders of the GB networks with a focus for discussion about longer term issues for networks. The scenarios should not be viewed as either forecasts or blueprints for future networks. Care has been taken to ensure that all major issues for networks have been written into the scenarios, so that between them there is comprehensive coverage of relevant
stakeholder concerns.

This report is path-breaking as it presents for the first time a set of long-term scenarios for Great Britain with a specific focus on electricity networks. „Electricity networks‟ are the transmission and distribution assets (i.e. the primary current carrying plant and the associated operating systems) that transport electrical energy from generation sources to demand (including consumers, industry, and the service sector). This definition also extends to private networks, offshore networks and interconnectors. Other scenarios studies in this area have typically looked at the wider GB or UK energy and electricity sector, or had a more detailed, medium-term focus on networks, with lesser
consideration of broader energy system aspects. The LENS project has had to consider relevant aspects of the broader GB energy and electricity sector, including European and global influences, and of the Government‟s nvironmental targets, and even the trends underlying these aspects.

Such consideration was required before we could develop scenarios for electricity networks, which only have a meaning and purpose within this broader context. Although they provide insights into the Government‟s targets, the LENS scenarios have not been specifically designed to meet them. Instead, the focus has been more on the driving forces underlying the targets, such as the environmental attitudes and behaviours of society as a whole and the impact these may have.