Economic inactivity and ill health in Scotland

The economic inactivity rate represents the proportion of the population that is not in work and is not ready to start work in the near future. While some types of inactivity are not causes for concern, like being in further education, others like poor health may reflect barriers to participation in paid work.

Rates of inactivity in Scotland and the rest of the UK both trended downwards from 2001 to about 2015, when Scotland's began to rise and the rest of the UK's continued to fall. When the UK's overall rate of inactivity rose during the pandemic, research focused on the potential roles of Long Covid and early retirement prompted by disillusionment with work. However, Scotland's inactivity rate actually fell during the pandemic, starting to rise again in 2023.

Scotland's recent trend in inactivity has therefore been very different from the UK, likely reflecting different underlying drivers. One potential reason for this divergence is differences in population health and health inequalities. This report therefore explores labour market survey data and NHS wait times data to understand the relationship between health and inactivity in Scotland.

This report starts by comparing Scotland to the rest of the UK on a number of measures, including rates of inactivity attributed to poor health, prevalence of limiting long-term illnesses (LLTIs), and correlations between LLTIs and inactivity. It then explores variation in health and inactivity within Scotland by area, age, gender, and level of education. Finally, the report summarises the relationship between healthcare access (proxied by A&E wait times) and inactivity, distinguishing between the overall trend from 2012-2022 and the pre-pandemic period. The briefing concludes with a discussion of key policy considerations.