Economic determinants of fertility in Belarus

This study examines the determinants of births in Belarus in 1996–2007 by using detailed micro-data from the Belarusian Household Budget Surveys (BHBS). The existing literature offers several explanations of the recent trends in fertility in Belarus and in other former Soviet Union countries. It is often argued that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the concomitant economic instability reduced fertility in the 1990s, while economic growth and stabilization were responsible for its recovery since 2005. We evaluate these and other hypotheses by looking at the determinants of the first, second and third births, separately for women aged below 30 years of age and above 30 years of age. We provide evidence on the presence and the relative importance of the economic determinants, including income and wages, economic uncertainty, maternity and child-care benefits. Our findings could inform demographic policies in Belarus and in other transitional countries.