Economic Commentary [June 2020] - Coronavirus special edition

Three months ago when we wrote the foreword for the last economic commentary, the world was just beginning to be gripped by a global health pandemic. In Scotland, we entered lockdown alongside the rest of the UK on 23 March. The deliberate closure of non-essential parts of our economy, synchronised across the globe, makes this economic crisis different to those that we have experienced previously. At the end of May, after over two months in lockdown, the country took its first tentative steps to restarting the economy. However, as we move into ‘Phase two’ of easing lockdown, there remains a great deal of uncertainty over how quickly businesses, and even industries, will be able to recover. There is also the very real threat of a second wave of the virus and the impact to the economy if restrictions were put in place once again. It is safe to say that no one knows exactly what will happen, and it will take several years to understand the full impact COVID-19 has had on society and businesses. However, we are starting to understand how this virus has fundamentally altered the way we live our lives and can begin to draw out key themes that will shape the ‘new normal’.