Econometric forecasts for Scotland

David N. F. Bell, Michael W. Danson, M. E. Glassford, Frank X. Kirwan, James W. McGilvray, A. J. Morton, Alison A. Wingfield, Fraser of Allander Institute, David N. F. Bell (Editor)

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    Abstract

    In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)34-36
    Number of pages3
    JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
    Volume3
    Issue number4
    Publication statusPublished - Apr 1978

    Fingerprint

    Econometrics
    Scotland
    Econometric models
    Economics
    Regional economics
    Economic variables

    Keywords

    • econometric models
    • econometric forecasting
    • Scottish economic growth

    Cite this

    Bell, D. N. F., Danson, M. W., Glassford, M. E., Kirwan, F. X., McGilvray, J. W., Morton, A. J., ... Bell, D. N. F. (Ed.) (1978). Econometric forecasts for Scotland. Quarterly Economic Commentary, 3(4), 34-36.
    Bell, David N. F. ; Danson, Michael W. ; Glassford, M. E. ; Kirwan, Frank X. ; McGilvray, James W. ; Morton, A. J. ; Wingfield, Alison A. ; Fraser of Allander Institute ; Bell, David N. F. (Editor). / Econometric forecasts for Scotland. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1978 ; Vol. 3, No. 4. pp. 34-36.
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    abstract = "In the first issue (July 1975) of the Fraser of Allander Institute Quarterly Economic Commentary, the special article, by Professor J McGilvray, reviewed the problems associated with constructing regional econometric models to forecast key economic variables. Since that time, a number of forecasts for the Scottish economy have been made in the main text or in special articles of the Quarterly Commentary. Many of these have been underpinned by forecasting relationships which have been estimated for particular sectors of the economy. Up to now we have been unable to produce a set of relationships which could genuinely be described as a 'model' of the Scottish economy. The reason for this is simple, but illustrative of the type of problem discussed by Professor McGilvray. To understand it one must be acquainted with the fundamental differences which exist between national and regional economic models.",
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    Bell, DNF, Danson, MW, Glassford, ME, Kirwan, FX, McGilvray, JW, Morton, AJ, Wingfield, AA, Fraser of Allander Institute & Bell, DNF (ed.) 1978, 'Econometric forecasts for Scotland', Quarterly Economic Commentary, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 34-36.

    Econometric forecasts for Scotland. / Bell, David N. F.; Danson, Michael W.; Glassford, M. E.; Kirwan, Frank X.; McGilvray, James W.; Morton, A. J.; Wingfield, Alison A.; Fraser of Allander Institute; Bell, David N. F. (Editor).

    In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 3, No. 4, 04.1978, p. 34-36.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    Bell DNF, Danson MW, Glassford ME, Kirwan FX, McGilvray JW, Morton AJ et al. Econometric forecasts for Scotland. Quarterly Economic Commentary. 1978 Apr;3(4):34-36.