Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations

Ahmed Babaleye, Mahdi Khorasanchi, Rafet Emek Kurt

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

Abstract

Well plugging and abandonment, P&A is the first operation to be addressed after a decision has been made to cease production during the decommissioning phase of oil and gas installations. Well P&A operation can be very costly with associated number of uncertainties. The operation is time-dependent as the physical and design parameters can change rapidly. Many of the present risk analysis of Well P&A operations have focused on planned risks based on expert judgement but not on evolving risks during the various stages of the operation. The present work is aimed at demonstrating the application of a dynamic risk approach in conducting a probabilistic risk analysis of well P&A. The dynamic risk analysis is based on analysing failure scenarios using Bow-tie, BT and mapping the BT model onto a Bayesian Network, BN. The BT model has proven to be an effective quantitative risk analysis tool but falls short to handle conditional probabilities and probability updating, both of which, are within the capability of the BN. Through sensitivity analysis, the BN takes into account probability adapting using accident precursor data and updating the probability data when knowledge of the risks associated with the well P&A operation increases.

Conference

ConferenceSPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe
Abbreviated titleSPE ICoTA
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityAberdeen
Period15/11/1716/11/17
Internet address

Fingerprint

Risk analysis
Bayesian networks
Sensitivity analysis
Accidents
Gases

Keywords

  • decommissioning
  • experience Learning
  • Bayesian network
  • dynamic safety assessment
  • Well P&A

Cite this

Babaleye, A., Khorasanchi, M., & Kurt, R. E. (2017). Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations. Poster session presented at SPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
Babaleye, Ahmed ; Khorasanchi, Mahdi ; Kurt, Rafet Emek. / Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations. Poster session presented at SPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
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Babaleye, A, Khorasanchi, M & Kurt, RE 2017, 'Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations' SPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, 15/11/17 - 16/11/17, .

Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations. / Babaleye, Ahmed; Khorasanchi, Mahdi; Kurt, Rafet Emek.

2017. Poster session presented at SPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

TY - CONF

T1 - Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations

AU - Babaleye, Ahmed

AU - Khorasanchi, Mahdi

AU - Kurt, Rafet Emek

PY - 2017/11/15

Y1 - 2017/11/15

N2 - Well plugging and abandonment, P&A is the first operation to be addressed after a decision has been made to cease production during the decommissioning phase of oil and gas installations. Well P&A operation can be very costly with associated number of uncertainties. The operation is time-dependent as the physical and design parameters can change rapidly. Many of the present risk analysis of Well P&A operations have focused on planned risks based on expert judgement but not on evolving risks during the various stages of the operation. The present work is aimed at demonstrating the application of a dynamic risk approach in conducting a probabilistic risk analysis of well P&A. The dynamic risk analysis is based on analysing failure scenarios using Bow-tie, BT and mapping the BT model onto a Bayesian Network, BN. The BT model has proven to be an effective quantitative risk analysis tool but falls short to handle conditional probabilities and probability updating, both of which, are within the capability of the BN. Through sensitivity analysis, the BN takes into account probability adapting using accident precursor data and updating the probability data when knowledge of the risks associated with the well P&A operation increases.

AB - Well plugging and abandonment, P&A is the first operation to be addressed after a decision has been made to cease production during the decommissioning phase of oil and gas installations. Well P&A operation can be very costly with associated number of uncertainties. The operation is time-dependent as the physical and design parameters can change rapidly. Many of the present risk analysis of Well P&A operations have focused on planned risks based on expert judgement but not on evolving risks during the various stages of the operation. The present work is aimed at demonstrating the application of a dynamic risk approach in conducting a probabilistic risk analysis of well P&A. The dynamic risk analysis is based on analysing failure scenarios using Bow-tie, BT and mapping the BT model onto a Bayesian Network, BN. The BT model has proven to be an effective quantitative risk analysis tool but falls short to handle conditional probabilities and probability updating, both of which, are within the capability of the BN. Through sensitivity analysis, the BN takes into account probability adapting using accident precursor data and updating the probability data when knowledge of the risks associated with the well P&A operation increases.

KW - decommissioning

KW - experience Learning

KW - Bayesian network

KW - dynamic safety assessment

KW - Well P&A

UR - http://www.icota-europe.com/events/2017/11/spe-icota-european-well-intervention-conference-2016-1

M3 - Poster

ER -

Babaleye A, Khorasanchi M, Kurt RE. Dynamic risk-based safety analysis of permanent well plugging and abandonment operations. 2017. Poster session presented at SPE ICoTA 23rd European Well Intervention Conference - Icota Europe, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.