Dynamic performance evaluation of photovoltaic power plant by stochastic hybrid fault tree automaton model

Ferdinando Chiacchio, Fabio Famoso, Diego D'Urso, Sebastian Brusca, Jose Ignacio Aizpurua, Luca Cedola

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13 Citations (Scopus)
91 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The contribution of renewable energies to the reduction of the impact of fossil fuels sources and especially energy supply in remote areas has occupied a role more and more important during last decades. The estimation of renewable power plants performances by means of deterministic models is usually limited by the innate variability of the energy resources. The accuracy of energy production forecasting results may be inadequate. An accurate feasibility analysis requires taking into account the randomness of the primary resource operations and the effect of component failures in the energy production process. This paper treats a novel approach to the estimation of energy production in a real photovoltaic power plant by means of dynamic reliability analysis based on Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA). The comparison between real data, deterministic model and SHyFTA model confirm how the latter better estimate energy production than deterministic model.
Original languageEnglish
Article number306
Number of pages22
JournalEnergies
Volume11
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Jan 2018

Keywords

  • renewable energy
  • stochastic hybrid automaton
  • aging
  • photovoltaic power plant
  • Monte Carlo simulation

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    Chiacchio, F., Famoso, F., D'Urso, D., Brusca, S., Aizpurua, J. I., & Cedola, L. (2018). Dynamic performance evaluation of photovoltaic power plant by stochastic hybrid fault tree automaton model. Energies, 11(2), [306]. https://doi.org/10.3390/en11020306