Dynamic modelling for sustainable dwellings

Different policies of the UK government have been initiated to reduce energy consumption in the housing sector. Various models have been developed to analyse the impact of these policies, which are classified as disciplinary or multidisciplinary models comprising variables related to technology, economic, sociology, occupants behaviour and climate. While being multidisciplinary, these models have limitations in simulating the complexity of household energy consumption. As a sociotechnical problem, this research aims to develop a system dynamics model to analyse profiles of household energy consumption considering the interrelationships among these influential variables. The model can assess the effect of different energy initiatives before/during their implementation. The proposed model has been used to test the effectiveness of the UK initiative Green Deal (GD) based on the most recent statistics released by the government. The model results indicate that carbon dioxide emissions savings of about 40% and 60% below the base year of 1990 are possible by 2020 and 2050, respectively. As a policy advice tool, this means that it is unlikely for this initiative by its own to meet the required legally binding reductions of 80% cut in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 unless the GD initiative is vigorously pursued with other energy initiatives.