Duration curve approach for managing uncertainty of renewable generation while dispatching a mixed generation portfolio

Many analytical solution methods are incapable of dealing with modern power system planning, operation and control problems due to various uncertainties involved in the system. Generation output from most of renewable energy (RE) sources is uncertain which varies with time. Therefore, appropriate solution methods need to be considered in light of the uncertainty of RE generation. In this paper, a generation duration curve approach has been presented in order to handle the uncertainty of RE generation output while solving a combined dispatch problem of fossil fuel (FF) units and RE sources. A cost minimisation scheduling problem of FF units along with forecasted quantities of RE sources is formulated and solved considering the probability of meeting or exceeding anticipated shortfalls of RE outputs. Due to the complexity of the problem a genetic algorithm (GA) based solution approach is considered for solving the problem. A test problem with five FF units and three RE sources is formulated and solved under various considerations. It is demonstrated that the combined operation of FF units with RE sources gives better results, which can also manage uncertainty associated with RE generation outputs.