Abstract
The relationships between the inhaled dose of foot and mouth disease virus and the outcomes of infection and disease were examined by fitting dose-response models to experimental data. The parameters for both the exponential and beta-poisson models were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. The median probability of infection given a single inhaled TCID50 was estimated to be 0·031 with 95% Bayesian credibility intervals (CI) of 0·018-0·052 for cattle, and 0·045 (CI = 0·024-0·080) for sheep. These estimates were used to construct dose-response curves and uncertainty distributions for use in quantitative risk assessments.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 325-332 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Infection and Epidemiology |
Volume | 128 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2002 |
Keywords
- mathematics
- statistics
- modelling science
- biology
- disease
- risk assessment