Distributed lag models for hydrological data

Alastair M. Rushworth, Adrian W. Bowman, Mark J. Brewer, Simon J. Langan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The distributed lag model (DLM), used most prominently in air pollution studies, finds application wherever the effect of a covariate is delayed and distributed through time. We specify modified formulations of DLMs to provide computationally attractive, flexible varying-coefficient models that are applicable in any setting in which lagged covariates are regressed on a time-dependent response. We investigate the application of such models to rainfall and river flow and in particular their role in understanding the impact of hidden variables at work in river systems. We apply two models to data from a Scottish mountain river, and we fit to some simulated data to check the efficacy of our model approach. During heavy rainfall conditions, changes in the influence of rainfall on flow arise through a complex interaction between antecedent ground wetness and a time-delay in rainfall. The models identify subtle changes in responsiveness to rainfall, particularly in the location of peak influence in the lag structure.

LanguageEnglish
Pages537-544
Number of pages8
JournalBiometrics
Volume69
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2013

Fingerprint

hydrologic data
Rainfall
Rivers
Rain
rain
Air Pollution
Covariates
rivers
Varying Coefficient Model
Hidden Variables
Model
air pollution
Efficacy
Time Delay
Air pollution
Time delay
mountains
Formulation
Interaction

Keywords

  • distributed lag
  • P-splines
  • rainfall
  • river flow
  • time series

Cite this

Rushworth, A. M., Bowman, A. W., Brewer, M. J., & Langan, S. J. (2013). Distributed lag models for hydrological data. Biometrics, 69(2), 537-544. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12008
Rushworth, Alastair M. ; Bowman, Adrian W. ; Brewer, Mark J. ; Langan, Simon J. / Distributed lag models for hydrological data. In: Biometrics. 2013 ; Vol. 69, No. 2. pp. 537-544.
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Rushworth, AM, Bowman, AW, Brewer, MJ & Langan, SJ 2013, 'Distributed lag models for hydrological data' Biometrics, vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 537-544. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12008

Distributed lag models for hydrological data. / Rushworth, Alastair M.; Bowman, Adrian W.; Brewer, Mark J.; Langan, Simon J.

In: Biometrics, Vol. 69, No. 2, 06.2013, p. 537-544.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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Rushworth AM, Bowman AW, Brewer MJ, Langan SJ. Distributed lag models for hydrological data. Biometrics. 2013 Jun;69(2):537-544. https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12008