Difficulties in predicting earthquake ground motions in metropolitan France and possible ways forward

The accurate estimation of the characteristics of the shaking that occurs during damaging earthquakes is vital for efficient risk mitigation in terms of land-use planning and the engineering design of structures that can adequately withstand these motions. The empirical estimation of these movements based on observed shaking in previous earthquakes is discussed in this article. Due to a lack of recordings from damaging earthquakes in metropolitan France, however, it is difficult to apply this technique. Research is hence underway to develop simulation methods based on physical models.