Decision-making in the arms of a dependent relationship: explaining shifts in importer acquisition patterns of major weapon systems, 1955-2007

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Arms dependency is typically framed as a security issue that states seek to avoid. Dependency creates an opportunity for an exporter to attempt to exert influence over the importer’s foreign and domestic policy. However, the arms trade is a trade and influence attempts create economic costs for exporters by damaging relationships with current and potential customers. Thus, heavily dependent states do not necessarily need to change suppliers to avoid the threat. Additionally, as arms transfers are a signal of political support, dependency may be a sign of a mutually beneficial relationship rather than one that is potentially dangerous. This article evaluates these arguments using logistic regression models to evaluate changes in suppliers of major weapons systems. It finds that the relationship between dependence and arms transfers is more complex than previously argued where the nature of the relationship depends both on the type of exporter and the type of arm being exported.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages42
JournalDefence and Peace Economics
Early online date20 May 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 20 May 2019

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weapon
supplier
arms trade
decision making
domestic policy
political support
foreign policy
customer
logistics
threat
regression
costs
economics
Decision making
Importer
Exporters
Suppliers

Keywords

  • arms transfers
  • arms importers
  • major weapon systems
  • dependency

Cite this

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title = "Decision-making in the arms of a dependent relationship: explaining shifts in importer acquisition patterns of major weapon systems, 1955-2007",
abstract = "Arms dependency is typically framed as a security issue that states seek to avoid. Dependency creates an opportunity for an exporter to attempt to exert influence over the importer’s foreign and domestic policy. However, the arms trade is a trade and influence attempts create economic costs for exporters by damaging relationships with current and potential customers. Thus, heavily dependent states do not necessarily need to change suppliers to avoid the threat. Additionally, as arms transfers are a signal of political support, dependency may be a sign of a mutually beneficial relationship rather than one that is potentially dangerous. This article evaluates these arguments using logistic regression models to evaluate changes in suppliers of major weapons systems. It finds that the relationship between dependence and arms transfers is more complex than previously argued where the nature of the relationship depends both on the type of exporter and the type of arm being exported.",
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AB - Arms dependency is typically framed as a security issue that states seek to avoid. Dependency creates an opportunity for an exporter to attempt to exert influence over the importer’s foreign and domestic policy. However, the arms trade is a trade and influence attempts create economic costs for exporters by damaging relationships with current and potential customers. Thus, heavily dependent states do not necessarily need to change suppliers to avoid the threat. Additionally, as arms transfers are a signal of political support, dependency may be a sign of a mutually beneficial relationship rather than one that is potentially dangerous. This article evaluates these arguments using logistic regression models to evaluate changes in suppliers of major weapons systems. It finds that the relationship between dependence and arms transfers is more complex than previously argued where the nature of the relationship depends both on the type of exporter and the type of arm being exported.

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