Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk

Yu Chen; Edoardo Patelli; Peng Zeng; Ben Edwards; Tianbin Li; Michael Beer

doi:10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd

Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk

Yu Chen, Edoardo Patelli, Peng Zeng, Ben Edwards, Tianbin Li, Michael Beer

Civil And Environmental Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

1 Citation (Scopus)

31 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020
Editors	Piero Baraldi, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio
Pages	2257-2264
Number of pages	8
ISBN (Electronic)	9789811485930
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd
Publication status	Published - 5 Nov 2020
Event	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020 - Venice, Virtual, Italy Duration: 1 Nov 2020 → 5 Nov 2020

Publication series

Name	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020

Conference

Conference	30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020
Country/Territory	Italy
City	Venice, Virtual
Period	1/11/20 → 5/11/20

Keywords

cost-benefit analysis
decision making
Monte Carlo
risk assessment
tunnel squeezing

Access to Document

10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd

Chen-etal-ESREL2020-Decision-making-optimal-primary-support-selection-minimise-tunnel-squeezing-riskAccepted author manuscript, 271 KB

Cite this

Chen, Y., Patelli, E., Zeng, P., Edwards, B., Li, T., & Beer, M. (2020). Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk. In P. Baraldi, F. Di Maio, & E. Zio (Eds.), 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020 (pp. 2257-2264). (30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020). https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd

Chen, Yu ; Patelli, Edoardo ; Zeng, Peng et al. / Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk. 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020. editor / Piero Baraldi ; Francesco Di Maio ; Enrico Zio. 2020. pp. 2257-2264 (30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020).

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title = "Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk",

abstract = "The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.",

keywords = "cost-benefit analysis, decision making, Monte Carlo, risk assessment, tunnel squeezing",

author = "Yu Chen and Edoardo Patelli and Peng Zeng and Ben Edwards and Tianbin Li and Michael Beer",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} ESREL2020-PSAM15 Organizers. Published by Research Publishing, Singapore. ; 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020 ; Conference date: 01-11-2020 Through 05-11-2020",

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doi = "10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd",

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Chen, Y, Patelli, E, Zeng, P, Edwards, B, Li, T & Beer, M 2020, Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk. in P Baraldi, F Di Maio & E Zio (eds), 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020. 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020, pp. 2257-2264, 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020, Venice, Virtual, Italy, 1/11/20. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd

Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk. / Chen, Yu; Patelli, Edoardo; Zeng, Peng et al.
30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020. ed. / Piero Baraldi; Francesco Di Maio; Enrico Zio. 2020. p. 2257-2264 (30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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AU - Li, Tianbin

AU - Beer, Michael

PY - 2020/11/5

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N2 - The excessive deformation caused by tunnel squeezing hazard is a key problem in tunnel construction, especially when tunneling through weak and over-stressed rock masses. Significant losses and delays would arise should an inappropriate selection of tunnel support be made. This paper presents a risk-based decision making framework to select the optimal support scheme in a quantitative manner. A program evaluation and review technique based Monte Carlo simulation procedure, which aims to estimate the cost distribution of different tunnel support schemes, is coupled with a multi-class probabilistic classifier on tunnel squeezing intensity. The risks regarding different scenarios of squeezing intensity and support scheme are expressed in a cost-benefit perspective using a modified Event Tree analysis, where abundant simulations of decision making can be done at one time and the optimal support scheme is hence selected based on votes. Finally, an engineering application is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and practicality of the proposed framework.

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Chen Y, Patelli E, Zeng P, Edwards B, Li T, Beer M. Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk. In Baraldi P, Di Maio F, Zio E, editors, 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020. 2020. p. 2257-2264. (30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM 2020). doi: 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4170-cd

Decision making for optimal primary-support selection to minimise tunnel-squeezing risk

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