Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method

George Wright, P Goodwin

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    116 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to do with inappropriate framing, cognitive and motivational bias, and inappropriate attributions of causality. Although we demonstrate that the scenario method contains weaknesses, we identify a potential for improvement. Four general principles that should help to enhance the role of scenario planning when predictability is low are discussed: (i) challenging mental frames, (ii) understanding human motivations, (iii) augmenting scenario planning through adopting the approach of crisis management, and (iv) assessing the flexibility, diversity, and insurability of strategic options in a structured option-against-scenario evaluation.
    LanguageEnglish
    Pages813-825
    Number of pages13
    JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
    Volume25
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 2009

    Fingerprint

    Predictability
    Planning
    Decision making
    Scenario planning
    Scenario method
    Crisis management
    Scenarios
    Causality
    Attribution
    Strategic options
    Anticipation
    Insurability
    Evaluation

    Keywords

    • decision making
    • planning
    • low levels
    • predictability
    • scenario method

    Cite this

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    Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability : enhancing the scenario method. / Wright, George; Goodwin, P.

    In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 25, No. 4, 10.2009, p. 813-825.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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