### Abstract

Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. In this paper, we present work towards implementing uncertainty treatment into a Free Open Source Tool for Re-entry of Asteroids and Space Debris (FOSTRAD). The uncertainty treatment in this work is limited to aerodynamic trajectory simulation. Results for the effect of uncertain parameters on trajectory simulation of a simple spherical object is presented. The work uses a novel uncertainty quantification approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are considered in this work. Uncertain atmospheric parameters considered include density, temperature, composition, and free-stream air heat capacity. Uncertain model parameters considered include object flight path angle, object speed, object mass, and direction angle. Drag is the only aerodynamic force considered in the planar re-entry problem. Results indicate that for initial conditions corresponding to re-entry from a circular orbit, the probabilistic distributions for the impact location are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoids and the high probability impact location along the longitudinal direction can be spread over ∼2000 km, while the overall distribution can be spread over ∼4000 km. High probability impact location along the lateral direction can be spread over ∼400 km.

Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | Astrodynamics 2015 |

Subtitle of host publication | Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9–13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A. |

Editors | Manoranjan Majji, James D. Turner, Geoff G. Wawrzyniak, William Todd Cerven |

Place of Publication | San Diego, California |

Pages | 3993-4011 |

Number of pages | 19 |

Volume | 156 |

Publication status | Published - 2016 |

Event | AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, ASC 2015 - Vail, United States Duration: 9 Aug 2015 → 13 Aug 2015 |

### Publication series

Name | Advances in Astronautical Sciences |
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Publisher | American Astronautical Society |

ISSN (Print) | 0065-3438 |

### Conference

Conference | AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, ASC 2015 |
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Country | United States |

City | Vail |

Period | 9/08/15 → 13/08/15 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- satellite debris
- debris re-entry
- space debris
- trajectory simulations
- uncertainty treatment
- aleatoric
- epistemic
- atmospheric parameters

### Cite this

*Astrodynamics 2015: Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9–13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A.*(Vol. 156, pp. 3993-4011). [AAS 15-557] (Advances in Astronautical Sciences). San Diego, California.

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*Astrodynamics 2015: Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9–13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A..*vol. 156, AAS 15-557, Advances in Astronautical Sciences, San Diego, California, pp. 3993-4011, AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, ASC 2015, Vail, United States, 9/08/15.

**Debris re-entry modeling using high dimensional derivative based uncertainty quantification.** / Mehta, Piyush M.; Kubicek, Martin; Minisci, Edmondo; Vasile, Massimiliano.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

TY - GEN

T1 - Debris re-entry modeling using high dimensional derivative based uncertainty quantification

AU - Mehta, Piyush M.

AU - Kubicek, Martin

AU - Minisci, Edmondo

AU - Vasile, Massimiliano

N1 - This paper was originally presented at the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9-13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A., and was originally published in the American Astronautical Society (AAS) publication Astrodynamics 2015, edited by Manoranjan Majji, James D. Turner, Geoff G. Wawrzyniak and William Todd Cerven, American Astronautical Society (AAS) Advances in the Astronautical Sciences, Volume 156, 2016, pp. 4205-4220 (Copyright © 2016 by American Astronautical Society Publications Office, P.O. Box 28130, San Diego, CA 92198, U.S.A.; Web Site: http://www.univelt.com

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. In this paper, we present work towards implementing uncertainty treatment into a Free Open Source Tool for Re-entry of Asteroids and Space Debris (FOSTRAD). The uncertainty treatment in this work is limited to aerodynamic trajectory simulation. Results for the effect of uncertain parameters on trajectory simulation of a simple spherical object is presented. The work uses a novel uncertainty quantification approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are considered in this work. Uncertain atmospheric parameters considered include density, temperature, composition, and free-stream air heat capacity. Uncertain model parameters considered include object flight path angle, object speed, object mass, and direction angle. Drag is the only aerodynamic force considered in the planar re-entry problem. Results indicate that for initial conditions corresponding to re-entry from a circular orbit, the probabilistic distributions for the impact location are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoids and the high probability impact location along the longitudinal direction can be spread over ∼2000 km, while the overall distribution can be spread over ∼4000 km. High probability impact location along the lateral direction can be spread over ∼400 km.

AB - Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. In this paper, we present work towards implementing uncertainty treatment into a Free Open Source Tool for Re-entry of Asteroids and Space Debris (FOSTRAD). The uncertainty treatment in this work is limited to aerodynamic trajectory simulation. Results for the effect of uncertain parameters on trajectory simulation of a simple spherical object is presented. The work uses a novel uncertainty quantification approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are considered in this work. Uncertain atmospheric parameters considered include density, temperature, composition, and free-stream air heat capacity. Uncertain model parameters considered include object flight path angle, object speed, object mass, and direction angle. Drag is the only aerodynamic force considered in the planar re-entry problem. Results indicate that for initial conditions corresponding to re-entry from a circular orbit, the probabilistic distributions for the impact location are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoids and the high probability impact location along the longitudinal direction can be spread over ∼2000 km, while the overall distribution can be spread over ∼4000 km. High probability impact location along the lateral direction can be spread over ∼400 km.

KW - satellite debris

KW - debris re-entry

KW - space debris

KW - trajectory simulations

KW - uncertainty treatment

KW - aleatoric

KW - epistemic

KW - atmospheric parameters

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85007384175&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.univelt.com/book=5315

M3 - Conference contribution book

SN - 9780877036296

VL - 156

T3 - Advances in Astronautical Sciences

SP - 3993

EP - 4011

BT - Astrodynamics 2015

A2 - Majji, Manoranjan

A2 - Turner, James D.

A2 - Wawrzyniak, Geoff G.

A2 - Cerven, William Todd

CY - San Diego, California

ER -