Cyber trust and crime prevention: gaining insight from three different futures

The Foresight project, ‘Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention’ set
out to explore the application and implications of next-generation
information technologies in areas such as identity and authenticity,
surveillance, system robustness, security and information assurance,
and the basis for effective interaction and trust between people
and machines.
In order to achieve this aim, the project has:
• produced state-of-the-art reviews of relevant areas of science
• set out visions of the future that define a range of possible
outcomes
• identified possible drivers, signposts, opportunities, threats,
barriers to progress and models for decision-making
• created a network of scientists, business people and policy
makers that can act on the findings to influence the future
• set out some specific key challenges and engaged all of those
who can address them.
RAND Europe was asked to assist the Foresight Directorate in
developing scenarios (visions of possible futures) as a basis for
conducting three runs of a seminar game (one per scenario), and in
running the game, involving experts and representatives from
government departments, businesses and civil society. The goals of
these games were to:
• develop an understanding of relationships among different actors
in the system
• contribute to consistent policy planning processes rather than
specific policies
• put forward adaptive, strategic long-term planning ideas.