Constructing consonant predictive beliefs from data with scenario theory

A method for constructing consonant predictive beliefs for multivariate datasets is presented. We make use of recent results in scenario theory to construct a family of enclosing sets that are associated with a predictive lower probability of new data falling in each given set. We show that the sequence of lower bounds indexed by enclosing set yields a consonant belief function. The presented method does not rely on the construction of a likelihood function, therefore possibility distributions can be obtained without the need for normalization. We present a practical example in two dimensions for the sake of visualization, to demonstrate the practical procedure of obtaining the sequence of nested sets.