TY - UNPB
T1 - Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics
AU - Waites, William
AU - Cavaliere, Matteo
AU - Danos, Vincent
AU - Datta, Ruchira
AU - Eggo, Rosalind M.
AU - Hallett, Timothy B.
AU - Manheim, David
AU - Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
AU - Russell, Timothy W.
AU - Zarnitsyna, Veronika I.
PY - 2021/11/3
Y1 - 2021/11/3
N2 - Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they don't allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together. The immune response model reproduces the expected response curve of PCR testing for COVID-19 and implies a long-tailed distribution of infectiousness reflective of individual heterogeneity. This immune response model, when combined with a transmission model, reproduces the previously reported shift in the population distribution of viral loads along an epidemic trajectory.
AB - Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they don't allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together. The immune response model reproduces the expected response curve of PCR testing for COVID-19 and implies a long-tailed distribution of infectiousness reflective of individual heterogeneity. This immune response model, when combined with a transmission model, reproduces the previously reported shift in the population distribution of viral loads along an epidemic trajectory.
KW - immune response model
KW - transmission models
KW - compositional modelling
KW - immune response
KW - virus transmission dynamics
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.02510v1
M3 - Working Paper/Preprint
BT - Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics
CY - Ithaca, N.Y.
ER -