Comparison of the ranges of uncertainty captured in different seismic-hazard studies

John Douglas, Thomas Ulrich, Didier Bertil, Julien Rey

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Abstract

The inclusion of epistemic uncertainties, generally via logic trees (Kulkarni et al., 1984), within probabilistic seismic‐hazard assessments (PSHAs) is becoming standard for all types of studies (commercial, governmental, or research; site specific, national, regional, or global). Consequently many studies publish expected ground motions for a given annual frequency of exceedance (AFE) or return period derived from the hazard curves for the mean, median, and various fractiles (percentiles).
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)977-985
Number of pages9
JournalSeismological Research Letters
Volume85
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2014

Keywords

  • seismic hazards
  • epistemic uncertainty
  • ground motion level

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