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Abstract
The paper presents four different nonintrusive approaches to the propagation of uncertainty in orbital dynamics with particular application to space debris orbit analysis. Intrusive approaches are generally understood as those methods that require a modification of the original problem by introducing a new algebra or by directly embedding highorder polynomial expansions of the uncertain quantities in the governing equations. Nonintrusive approaches are instead based on a polynomial representations built on sparse samples of the system response to the uncertain quantities. The paper will present a standard Polynomial Chaos Expansion, an Uncertain QuantificationHigh Dimensional Model Representation, a Generalised Kriging model and an expansion with Tchebycheff polynomials on sparse grids. The work will assess the computational cost and the suitability of these methods to propagate different type of orbits.
Original language  English 

Title of host publication  Astrodynamics 2015 
Subtitle of host publication  Proceedings of the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9–13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A. 
Editors  Manoranjan Majji, James D. Turner, Geoff G. Wawrzyniak, William Todd Cerven 
Place of Publication  San Diego, California 
Pages  39793992 
Number of pages  14 
Publication status  Published  9 Aug 2015 
Event  AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference 2015  Colorado, Vail, United States Duration: 9 Aug 2015 → 13 Aug 2015 
Publication series
Name  Advances in Astrnautical Sciences 

Publisher  American Astronautical Society 
Volume  156 
ISSN (Print)  00653438 
Conference
Conference  AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference 2015 

Country  United States 
City  Vail 
Period  9/08/15 → 13/08/15 
Keywords
 space debris
 orbit analysis
 polynomial chaos expansion
 sparse grids
 uncertainty
 nonintrusive
 kriging model
 Tchebycheff polynomials
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Projects
 1 Finished

Marie Curie ITN (Stardust)
Vasile, M., Biggs, J., Burns, D., Hopkins, J., Macdonald, M., McInnes, C., Minisci, E. & Maddock, C.
European Commission  FP7  General
1/02/13 → 31/01/17
Project: Research