Comparison of non-intrusive approaches to uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics

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Abstract

The paper presents four different non-intrusive approaches to the propagation of uncertainty in orbital dynamics with particular application to space debris orbit analysis. Intrusive approaches are generally understood as those methods that require a modification of the original problem by introducing a new algebra or by directly embedding high-order polynomial expansions of the uncertain quantities in the governing equations. Non-intrusive approaches are instead based on a polynomial representations built on sparse samples of the system response to the uncertain quantities. The paper will present a standard Polynomial Chaos Expansion, an Uncertain Quantification-High Dimensional Model Representation, a Generalised Kriging model and an expansion with Tchebycheff polynomials on sparse grids. The work will assess the computational cost and the suitability of these methods to propagate different type of orbits.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAstrodynamics 2015
Subtitle of host publicationProceedings of the AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference held August 9–13, 2015, Vail, Colorado, U.S.A.
EditorsManoranjan Majji, James D. Turner, Geoff G. Wawrzyniak, William Todd Cerven
Place of PublicationSan Diego, California
Pages3979-3992
Number of pages14
Publication statusPublished - 9 Aug 2015
EventAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference 2015 - Colorado, Vail, United States
Duration: 9 Aug 201513 Aug 2015

Publication series

NameAdvances in Astrnautical Sciences
PublisherAmerican Astronautical Society
Volume156
ISSN (Print)0065-3438

Conference

ConferenceAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference 2015
CountryUnited States
CityVail
Period9/08/1513/08/15

Keywords

  • space debris
  • orbit analysis
  • polynomial chaos expansion
  • sparse grids
  • uncertainty
  • non-intrusive
  • kriging model
  • Tchebycheff polynomials

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