Common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates

K. B. Luintel, K. Paudyal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)


The common trend analyses between the forward rate (Ft) and the corresponding future spot rate of the same currency (St+1) have raised several issues: notably, the sensitivity of the cointegrating relation to a constant term and lag lengths and the non-stationarity of the risk premium. This paper addresses these issues more rigorously using the daily exchange rate of the pound Sterling vis-à-vis five major currencies viz. the Canadian dollar, French franc, German mark, Japanese yen, and US dollar. The appropriate deterministic term in the cointegrating space is identified through empirical tests. A robust cointegrating relation is found between Ft and St+1; however, the hypothesis of unbiasedness of forward rate could not be sustained. An alternative measure of risk premium is suggested and its stationarity is confirmed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)279-297
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of International Money and Finance
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 6 Apr 1998


  • cointegration
  • F31
  • forward rate
  • G14
  • risk premium
  • spot rate


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