Combatting Malaysia’s dengue outbreaks with auto-dissemination mosquito traps: a hybrid stochastic-deterministic SIR model

Jonathan Wells; David Greenhalgh; Yanfeng Liang; Itamar Megiddo; Wasi Ahmad Nazni; Teoh Guat-Ney; Han Lim Lee

doi:10.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.7

Combatting Malaysia’s dengue outbreaks with auto-dissemination mosquito traps: a hybrid stochastic-deterministic SIR model

Jonathan Wells, David Greenhalgh, Yanfeng Liang, Itamar Megiddo, Wasi Ahmad Nazni, Teoh Guat-Ney, Han Lim Lee

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Abstract

Classical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosquitoes. A novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic model is presented, that successfully predicts the effect of deploying MHSs within high-rise flats in Selangor, Malaysia. Stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) equations (flats) are paired with an existing deterministic SIR model (wider Kuala Lumpur population). Model predictions provide excellent agreement with data from a 44 week MHS trial within the flats. The stochastic model is validated as a powerful tool for predicting short- and long-term impacts of deploying this style of trap within similar environments. Significant, sustainable reductions in mosquito populations are predicted when the MHS is active: with a mean of 9 (95% Uncertainty Range (UR): 1; 30) during the 44 week trial period, compared to 35 (95% UR: 1; 234) dengue cases with no MHSs. Long-term predictions for endemic equilibrium show MHSs significantly narrow the mosquito population distribution and reduce dengue prevalence: from a mean of 5 (95% UR: 0; 52) (no MHS), to 1 (95% UR: 0; 8) dengue cases annually (with MHS).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	169-188
Number of pages	20
Journal	Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
Volume	6
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.7
Publication status	Published - 31 Dec 2023

Funding

This work was funded through the British Council in Malaysia, as part of their Dengue Tech Challenge (Application reference: DTC 16022), under the Newton-Ungku Omar Fund partnership, the Scottish Funding Council’s Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), alongside EPSRC and the University of Strathclyde, UK, who provided funding from the 2016 EPSRC Global Challenges Research Fund, Institutional Award (EPSRC reference: EP/P511055/1). The Dengue Tech Challenge grant was funded by the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the Malaysian Industry-Government Group for High Technology (MIGHT) and delivered by the British Council and PlaTCOM ventures.

Keywords

dengue
auto-dissemination mosquito trap
mosquito home system
Aedes mosquitoes
Malaysia
SIR model
ordinary differential equations
stochastic
deterministic
vector-borne

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.5614/cbms.2023.6.2.7Licence: CC BY-ND 4.0

Wells-etal-CBMS-2023-Combatting-Malaysias-dengue-outbreaks-with-auto-dissemination-mosquito-trapsFinal published version, 1.71 MBLicence: CC BY-ND 4.0

Cite this

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title = "Combatting Malaysia{\textquoteright}s dengue outbreaks with auto-dissemination mosquito traps: a hybrid stochastic-deterministic SIR model",

abstract = "Classical mosquito control methods (e.g. chemical fogging) struggle to sustain long-term reductions in mosquito populations to combat vector-borne diseases like dengue. The Mosquito Home System (MHS) is an auto-dissemination mosquito trap, that kills mosquito larvae before they hatch into adult mosquitoes. A novel hybrid stochastic-deterministic model is presented, that successfully predicts the effect of deploying MHSs within high-rise flats in Selangor, Malaysia. Stochastic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) equations (flats) are paired with an existing deterministic SIR model (wider Kuala Lumpur population). Model predictions provide excellent agreement with data from a 44 week MHS trial within the flats. The stochastic model is validated as a powerful tool for predicting short- and long-term impacts of deploying this style of trap within similar environments. Significant, sustainable reductions in mosquito populations are predicted when the MHS is active: with a mean of 9 (95% Uncertainty Range (UR): 1; 30) during the 44 week trial period, compared to 35 (95% UR: 1; 234) dengue cases with no MHSs. Long-term predictions for endemic equilibrium show MHSs significantly narrow the mosquito population distribution and reduce dengue prevalence: from a mean of 5 (95% UR: 0; 52) (no MHS), to 1 (95% UR: 0; 8) dengue cases annually (with MHS).",

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Combatting Malaysia’s dengue outbreaks with auto-dissemination mosquito traps: a hybrid stochastic-deterministic SIR model

Abstract

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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