Collision and re-entry analysis under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty

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Abstract

This paper presents an approach to the design of optimal collision avoidance and re-entry maneuvers considering different types of uncertainty in initial conditions and model parameters. The uncertainty is propagated through the dynamics, with a non-intrusive approach, based on multivariate Tchebycheff series, to form a polynomial representation of the final states. The collision probability, in the cases of precise and imprecise probability measures, is computed considering the intersection between the uncertainty region of the end states of the spacecraft and a reference sphere. The re-entry probability, instead, is computed considering the intersection between the uncertainty region of the end states of the spacecraft and the atmosphere.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAstrodynamics 2015
EditorsManoranjan Majji, James D. Turner, Geoff G. Wawrzyniak, William Todd Cerven
Place of PublicationSan Diego, California
Pages4205-4220
Number of pages16
Volume156
Publication statusPublished - 2016
EventAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, ASC 2015 - Vail, United States
Duration: 9 Aug 201513 Aug 2015

Publication series

NameAdvances in Astronautical Sciences
PublisherUnivelt Inc.
Volume156
ISSN (Print)0065-3438

Conference

ConferenceAAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, ASC 2015
CountryUnited States
CityVail
Period9/08/1513/08/15

Keywords

  • optimal collision avoidance
  • re-entry operations
  • spacecraft
  • Tchebycheff series
  • nonlinear

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  • Cite this

    Tardioli, C., & Vasile, M. (2016). Collision and re-entry analysis under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In M. Majji, J. D. Turner, G. G. Wawrzyniak, & W. T. Cerven (Eds.), Astrodynamics 2015 (Vol. 156, pp. 4205-4220). [AAS 15-709] (Advances in Astronautical Sciences; Vol. 156)..