Cluster dynamics: new evidence and projections for computing services in Great Britain

This paper tests some of the main hypotheses about the importance of horizontal clusters for the growth of employment in small firms using data from Computing Services in Great Britain. In the main section of the paper, spatial econometric models are estimated controlling for supply- and demand-side conditions to isolate the effect of initial cluster intensity. The paper then projects cluster development using the fitted model, showing how clusters are likely to emerge and intensify. One aspect of the paper is the existence of a de-clustering mechanism due to congestion effects.