Climate change uncertainty quantification: lessons learned from the joint EU-USNRC project on uncertainty analysis of probabilistic accident consequence codes

Roger M Cooke, George-Neale Kelly

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the
European Communities conducted a joint uncertainty analysis of accident consequences for nuclear
power plants. This study remains a benchmark for uncertainty analysis of large models involving high
risks with high public visibility, and where substantial uncertainty exists. The study set standards with
regard to structured expert judgment, performance assessment, dependence elicitation and modeling and
uncertainty propagation of high dimensional distributions with complex dependence. The integrated
assessment models for the economic effects of climate change also involve high risks and large
uncertainties, and interest in conducting a proper uncertainty analysis is growing. This article reviews the
EU-USNRC effort and extracts lessons learned, with a view toward informing a comparable effort for the
economic effects of climate change
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationWashington
Number of pages17
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • climate change
  • uncertainty quantification
  • dependence modeling
  • nuclear safety
  • uncertainty analysis
  • expert judgement
  • expert elicitation
  • probabilistic inversion

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