Climate change uncertainty quantification: lessons learned from the joint EU-USNRC project on uncertainty analysis of probabilistic accident consequence codes

Roger M Cooke, George-Neale Kelly

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the
European Communities conducted a joint uncertainty analysis of accident consequences for nuclear
power plants. This study remains a benchmark for uncertainty analysis of large models involving high
risks with high public visibility, and where substantial uncertainty exists. The study set standards with
regard to structured expert judgment, performance assessment, dependence elicitation and modeling and
uncertainty propagation of high dimensional distributions with complex dependence. The integrated
assessment models for the economic effects of climate change also involve high risks and large
uncertainties, and interest in conducting a proper uncertainty analysis is growing. This article reviews the
EU-USNRC effort and extracts lessons learned, with a view toward informing a comparable effort for the
economic effects of climate change
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationWashington
Number of pages17
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Fingerprint

Quantification
Lessons learned
Accidents
Climate change
Uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty
Economic effect
Propagation
Performance assessment
Modeling
Integrated assessment model
Nuclear power plant
Benchmark
Expert judgment
Visibility

Keywords

  • climate change
  • uncertainty quantification
  • dependence modeling
  • nuclear safety
  • uncertainty analysis
  • expert judgement
  • expert elicitation
  • probabilistic inversion

Cite this

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Climate change uncertainty quantification : lessons learned from the joint EU-USNRC project on uncertainty analysis of probabilistic accident consequence codes. / Cooke, Roger M; Kelly, George-Neale.

Washington, 2010.

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

TY - UNPB

T1 - Climate change uncertainty quantification

T2 - lessons learned from the joint EU-USNRC project on uncertainty analysis of probabilistic accident consequence codes

AU - Cooke, Roger M

AU - Kelly, George-Neale

PY - 2010

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N2 - Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities conducted a joint uncertainty analysis of accident consequences for nuclear power plants. This study remains a benchmark for uncertainty analysis of large models involving high risks with high public visibility, and where substantial uncertainty exists. The study set standards with regard to structured expert judgment, performance assessment, dependence elicitation and modeling and uncertainty propagation of high dimensional distributions with complex dependence. The integrated assessment models for the economic effects of climate change also involve high risks and large uncertainties, and interest in conducting a proper uncertainty analysis is growing. This article reviews the EU-USNRC effort and extracts lessons learned, with a view toward informing a comparable effort for the economic effects of climate change

AB - Between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities conducted a joint uncertainty analysis of accident consequences for nuclear power plants. This study remains a benchmark for uncertainty analysis of large models involving high risks with high public visibility, and where substantial uncertainty exists. The study set standards with regard to structured expert judgment, performance assessment, dependence elicitation and modeling and uncertainty propagation of high dimensional distributions with complex dependence. The integrated assessment models for the economic effects of climate change also involve high risks and large uncertainties, and interest in conducting a proper uncertainty analysis is growing. This article reviews the EU-USNRC effort and extracts lessons learned, with a view toward informing a comparable effort for the economic effects of climate change

KW - climate change

KW - uncertainty quantification

KW - dependence modeling

KW - nuclear safety

KW - uncertainty analysis

KW - expert judgement

KW - expert elicitation

KW - probabilistic inversion

UR - http://www.rff.org/RFF/Documents/RFF-DP-10-29.pdf

M3 - Discussion paper

BT - Climate change uncertainty quantification

CY - Washington

ER -