Characteristics of a process for subjective probability elicitation

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

The elicitation of subjective probabilities from experts can be critical in determining a course of action when making decisions under uncertainty. A sound process to elicit probabilistic judgement is necessary to ensure that good quality data are used to inform the decision-making, as well as to provide protection to those accountable for the consequences of the determined actions. We synthesise the characteristics of a good elicitation process by critically reviewing those advocated and applied. We compare the processes inherent in the guidance produced by two professional bodies to exemplify the manner in which the characteristics manifest themselves in practice. We examine whether standardisation is meaningful given the maturity of processes for the elicitation of subjective probability.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationExpert Judgment in Risk and Decision Analysis
EditorsAnca M. Hanea, Gabriela F. Nane, Tim Bedford, Simon French
Place of PublicationCham, Switzerland
PublisherSpringer
Pages287-318
Number of pages32
ISBN (Electronic)9783030464745
ISBN (Print)9783030464769, 9783030464738
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 6 Feb 2021

Publication series

NameInternational Series in Operations Research and Management Science
Volume293
ISSN (Print)0884-8289
ISSN (Electronic)2214-7934

Keywords

  • uncertainty
  • probabilistic judgement
  • decision making
  • probability elicitation

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