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Due to the over-parameterised models in detailed thermal simulation programs, modellers undertaking validation or calibration studies, where the model output is compared against field measurements, face dficulties in determining those parameters which are primarily responsible for observed diferences. Where sensitivity studies are undertaken, the Morris Method is commonly applied to identify the most influential parameters. They are often accompanied by uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations to generate confidence bounds around the predictions. This paper sets out a more rigorous approach to sensitivity analysis based on a global sensitivity analysis method with three stages: factor screening, factor prioritising and fixing, and factor mapping. The method is applied to a detailed empirical validation dataset obtained within IEA ECB Annex 58, with the focus of the study on the air flow network, a simulation program sub-model which is subject to large uncertainties in its inputs.
|Number of pages||20|
|Journal||Journal of Building Performance Simulation|
|Early online date||13 Jan 2016|
|Publication status||E-pub ahead of print - 13 Jan 2016|
- global sensitivity analysis
- airflow networks
- empirical validation
- IEA Annex 58
- dynamical thermal modelling
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- 1 Finished
Validation of Dynamic Thermal Simulation Programs with Data from Full-Scale Buildings
EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council)
8/10/12 → 7/09/15