Challenge from Transpower: determining the effect of the aggregated behaviour of solar photovoltaic power generation and battery energy storage systems on grid exit point load in order to maintain an accurate load forecast

With limited data beyond the grid exit point (GXP) or substation level, how can Transpower determine the effect of the aggregated behaviour of solar photovoltaic power generation and battery energy storage systems on GXP load in order to maintain an accurate load forecast? In this initial study it is assumed that the GXP services a residential region. An algorithm based on non-linear programming, which minimises the financial cost to the consumer, is developed to model consumer behaviour. Input data comprises forecast energy requirements (load), solar irradiance, and pricing. Output includes both the load drawn from the grid and power returned to the grid. The algorithm presented is at the household level. The next step would be to combine the load drawn from the grid and the power returned to the grid from all the households serviced by a GXP, enabling Transpower to make load predictions. Various means of load forecasting are considered including the Holt--Winters methods which perform well for out-of-sample forecasts. Linear regression, which takes into account comparable days, solar radiation, and air temperature, yields even better performance.