Call for reinforcements: the impact of energy demand reduction policies on energy infrastructure needs

Demand electrification, system flexibility and energy demand reduction (EDR) are three central tenets of energy system decarbonisation in high-income countries. Their combined impacts on local energy systems, however, remain understudied. Here, we investigate the impact of energy demand future scenarios on the loading of local electricity networks, and the ability of demand to act flexibly in (i) mitigating the need for network reinforcement and (ii) shifting demand in time according to variable tariffs reflecting wider system needs. We demonstrate the method on a case study network in Scotland, representative of a great many energy systems in Europe.

In this case study, we find that EDR-focussed energy futures reduce peak demand by up to 16 % versus the business-as-usual trajectory. We find that EDR and demand flexibility are best used in tandem in minimising the impact of demand electrification on networks, in this case reducing evening peak demand by up to 69 % versus the baseline when employing bi-directional charging from electric vehicles under energy futures with EDR. Therefore, promotion of EDR – particularly through policies targeted at excessive energy consumption – should be jointly prioritised with enabling system flexibility in promoting least-cost options for rapid decarbonisation at scale.