Calibrating the backbone approach for the development of earthquake ground motion models

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

77 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The backbone approach is becoming increasingly employed to develop ground-motion models for use within probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, particularly for nuclear facilities. The backbone approach has a number of attractions, including: transparency over the level of uncertainty implied by the ground-motion model, a clearer understanding of the meaning of the weights of the logic tree (because each branch is mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) and an ability to make the model specific for a given site. This is in contrast to the classic method of selecting (using various approaches) a suite of ground motion prediction equations from the literature, which may appear easier but suffers, for example, from the difficulty of understanding whether epistemic uncertainty in future ground motions at the site is sufficiently captured.

One of the principal challenges in applying the backbone approach is its calibration so that the branches of the ground-motion logic tree capture the appropriate level of epistemic uncertainty. This is particularly difficult for regions with limited strong-motion data, which are generally areas of lower seismicity. In this article, I summarize previous uses of the backbone approach in the literature before investigating calibration using the stochastic method, which is particularly useful when there are few or no local strong-motion records. I show that the scaling factors developed from the stochastic models roughly imply the expected variations in epistemic uncertainty given the amount of data available from different tectonic regimes.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages11
Publication statusPublished - 14 May 2018
EventBest Practice in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations : Issues and Challenges Towards Full Seismic Risk Analysis - CEA - Cadarache- Château, Cadarache, France
Duration: 14 May 201816 May 2018

Workshop

WorkshopBest Practice in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations : Issues and Challenges Towards Full Seismic Risk Analysis
Abbreviated title2nd BestPSHANI
CountryFrance
CityCadarache
Period14/05/1816/05/18

Keywords

  • seismic hazard
  • ground-motion model
  • backbone approach
  • epistemic uncertainty

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  • Research Output

    Capturing geographically-varying uncertainty in earthquake ground motion models or what we think we know may change

    Douglas, J., 25 Apr 2018, Recent Advances in Earthquake Engineering in Europe: 16th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering-Thessaloniki 2018. Pitilakis, K. (ed.). Cham, Vol. 46. p. 153-181 29 p. (Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering; vol. 46).

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    Open Access
    File
  • 13 Citations (Scopus)
    63 Downloads (Pure)

    Activities

    • 2 Key-note speaker and plenary lectures at conferences
    • 1 Participation in workshop, seminar, course
    • 1 Invited talk

    XVIII ANIDIS Conference

    John Douglas (Participant)

    16 Sep 2019

    Activity: Participating in or organising an event typesKey-note speaker and plenary lectures at conferences

    Discussion of the ground-motion models proposed for the next generation of PSHA in Europe

    John Douglas (Participant)

    27 Mar 2019

    Activity: Participating in or organising an event typesParticipation in workshop, seminar, course

    GMPE workshop for revision of UK national seismic hazard map

    John Douglas (Invited speaker)

    27 Sep 2018

    Activity: Talk or presentation typesInvited talk

    Cite this

    Douglas, J. (2018). Calibrating the backbone approach for the development of earthquake ground motion models. Paper presented at Best Practice in Physics-based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations : Issues and Challenges Towards Full Seismic Risk Analysis, Cadarache, France.