Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement

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Abstract

A sound methodology for the elicitation of subjective expert judgement is a pre-requisite for specifying prior distributions for the parameters of reliability growth models. In this paper, we describe an elicitation process that is developed to ensure valid data are collected by suggesting how possible bias might be identified and managed. As well as discussing the theory underpinning the elicitation process, the paper gives practical guidance concerning its implementation during reliability growth testing. The collection of subjective data using the proposed elicitation process is embedded within a Bayesian reliability growth modelling framework and reflections upon its practical use are described.
LanguageEnglish
Pages117-128
Number of pages11
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume74
Issue number2
Early online date3 Oct 2001
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2001

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Reliability Growth
Expert Judgment
Elicitation
Prior distribution
Modeling
Growth Model
Acoustic waves
Guidance
Testing
Valid
Methodology

Keywords

  • bayesian analysis
  • reliability growth models
  • elicitation
  • prior probability distributions
  • statistics

Cite this

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abstract = "A sound methodology for the elicitation of subjective expert judgement is a pre-requisite for specifying prior distributions for the parameters of reliability growth models. In this paper, we describe an elicitation process that is developed to ensure valid data are collected by suggesting how possible bias might be identified and managed. As well as discussing the theory underpinning the elicitation process, the paper gives practical guidance concerning its implementation during reliability growth testing. The collection of subjective data using the proposed elicitation process is embedded within a Bayesian reliability growth modelling framework and reflections upon its practical use are described.",
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