Building confidence in models for multiple audiences: the modelling cascade

S.M. Howick, C. Eden, F. Ackermann, T.M. Williams

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

43 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper reports on a model building process developed to enable multiple audiences, particularly non-experts, to appreciate the validity of the models being built and their outcomes. The process is a four stage reversible cascade. This cascade provides a structured, auditable/transparent, formalized process from "real world" interviews generating a rich qualitative model through two intermediate steps before arriving at a quantitative simulation model. There are a number of advantages of the cascade process including; achieving comprehensiveness, developing organizational learning, testing the veracity of multiple perspectives, modeling transparency, achieving common understanding across many audiences and promoting confidence building in the models. The paper, based on extensive work with organizations, discusses both the cascade process and its inherent benefits.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1068-1083
Number of pages16
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume186
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2008

Keywords

  • simulation
  • validity
  • cognitive mapping
  • cause mapping
  • management

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