Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

Stephanie Bryson, Megan Michelle Grime, Adarsh Murthy, George Wright

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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    Abstract

    In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.
    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationBehavioural Operational Research
    Subtitle of host publicationTheory, Methodology and Practice
    EditorsMartin Kunc, Jonathan Malpass, Leroy White
    Place of PublicationLondon
    Chapter10
    Publication statusPublished - 29 Jun 2016

    Keywords

    • business-as-usual thinking
    • scenario thinking
    • group behaviour
    • facilitation
    • overconfidence
    • cognitive biases
    • organisational inertia

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