Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

    Abstract

    In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.
    LanguageEnglish
    Title of host publicationBehavioural Operational Research
    Subtitle of host publicationTheory, Methodology and Practice
    EditorsMartin Kunc, Jonathan Malpass, Leroy White
    Place of PublicationLondon
    Chapter10
    Publication statusPublished - 29 Jun 2016

    Fingerprint

    Scenarios
    Cognitive bias
    Facilitation
    Progression
    Divergence
    Overconfidence
    Group processes

    Keywords

    • business-as-usual thinking
    • scenario thinking
    • group behaviour
    • facilitation
    • overconfidence
    • cognitive biases
    • organisational inertia

    Cite this

    Bryson, S., Grime, M. M., Murthy, A., & Wright, G. (2016). Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. In M. Kunc, J. Malpass, & L. White (Eds.), Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice London.
    Bryson, Stephanie ; Grime, Megan Michelle ; Murthy, Adarsh ; Wright, George. / Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. editor / Martin Kunc ; Jonathan Malpass ; Leroy White. London, 2016.
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    abstract = "In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.",
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    Bryson, S, Grime, MM, Murthy, A & Wright, G 2016, Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. in M Kunc, J Malpass & L White (eds), Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. London.

    Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. / Bryson, Stephanie; Grime, Megan Michelle; Murthy, Adarsh; Wright, George.

    Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. ed. / Martin Kunc; Jonathan Malpass; Leroy White. London, 2016.

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

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    Bryson S, Grime MM, Murthy A, Wright G. Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. In Kunc M, Malpass J, White L, editors, Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. London. 2016