Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

Stephanie Bryson; Megan Michelle Grime; Adarsh Murthy; George Wright

Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

Stephanie Bryson, Megan Michelle Grime, Adarsh Murthy, George Wright

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Abstract

In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Behavioural Operational Research
Subtitle of host publication	Theory, Methodology and Practice
Editors	Martin Kunc, Jonathan Malpass, Leroy White
Place of Publication	London
Publisher	Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.
Chapter	10
ISBN (Print)	978-1-137-53551-1
Publication status	Published - 29 Jun 2016

Keywords

business-as-usual thinking
scenario thinking
group behaviour
facilitation
overconfidence
cognitive biases
organisational inertia

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Wright-etal-Palgrave-2015-Behavioural-issues-in-the-practical-applicationAccepted author manuscript, 212 KB

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Bryson, Stephanie ; Grime, Megan Michelle ; Murthy, Adarsh et al. / Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking : cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. editor / Martin Kunc ; Jonathan Malpass ; Leroy White. London : Palgrave Macmillan Ltd., 2016.

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abstract = "In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.",

keywords = "business-as-usual thinking, scenario thinking, group behaviour, facilitation, overconfidence, cognitive biases, organisational inertia",

author = "Stephanie Bryson and Grime, {Megan Michelle} and Adarsh Murthy and George Wright",

note = "This extract is taken from the author's original manuscript and has not been edited. The definitive, published, version of record is available here: www.palgrave.com ",

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Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. / Bryson, Stephanie; Grime, Megan Michelle; Murthy, Adarsh et al.
Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice. ed. / Martin Kunc; Jonathan Malpass; Leroy White. London: Palgrave Macmillan Ltd., 2016.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

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T2 - cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

AU - Bryson, Stephanie

AU - Grime, Megan Michelle

AU - Murthy, Adarsh

AU - Wright, George

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KW - group behaviour

KW - facilitation

KW - overconfidence

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M3 - Chapter

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BT - Behavioural Operational Research

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PB - Palgrave Macmillan Ltd.

CY - London

ER -

Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking

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Keywords

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