In this chapter, we discuss and analyse the use of scenario interventions in organisations to overcome business-as-usual thinking - by promoting divergence of opinion and subsequent debate about the nature of the future. We shown that cognitive biases at the level of individual participants in a scenario workshop can both help and hinder the progression of scenario thinking and we go on to demonstrate how expert facilitation of the group process can help generate process-gain with the result that individually-held overconfidence is challenged and attenuated.
|Title of host publication||Behavioural Operational Research|
|Subtitle of host publication||Theory, Methodology and Practice|
|Editors||Martin Kunc, Jonathan Malpass, Leroy White|
|Place of Publication||London|
|Publication status||Published - 29 Jun 2016|
- business-as-usual thinking
- scenario thinking
- group behaviour
- cognitive biases
- organisational inertia
Bryson, S., Grime, M. M., Murthy, A., & Wright, G. (2016). Behavioural issues in the practical application of scenario thinking: cognitive biases, effective group facilitation, and overcoming business-as-usual thinking. In M. Kunc, J. Malpass, & L. White (Eds.), Behavioural Operational Research: Theory, Methodology and Practice London.