Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond

Silvia Tolo; Edoardo Patelli; Michael Beer

doi:10.1061/9780784413609.061

Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond

Silvia Tolo, Edoardo Patelli, Michael Beer

Civil And Environmental Engineering

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publication	Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
Editors	Jim W. Hall, Siu-Kui Au, Michael Beer
Publisher	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages	598-607
Number of pages	10
ISBN (Electronic)	9780784413609
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.061
Publication status	Published - 7 Jul 2014
Event	2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 - Liverpool, United Kingdom Duration: 13 Jul 2014 → 16 Jul 2014

Publication series

Name	Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014

Conference

Conference	2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Liverpool
Period	13/07/14 → 16/07/14

Keywords

ponds
decision support systems
fuels
nuclear power
Bayesian analysis
reliability analysis
radioactive wastes
risk analysis
uncertainty analysis
risk assessment

Access to Document

10.1061/9780784413609.061

Cite this

Tolo, S., Patelli, E., & Beer, M. (2014). Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. In J. W. Hall, S.-K. Au, & M. Beer (Eds.), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 598-607). (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.061

Tolo, Silvia ; Patelli, Edoardo ; Beer, Michael. / Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. editor / Jim W. Hall ; Siu-Kui Au ; Michael Beer. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. pp. 598-607 (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014).

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title = "Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond",

abstract = "The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.",

keywords = "ponds, decision support systems, fuels, nuclear power, Bayesian analysis, reliability analysis, radioactive wastes, risk analysis, uncertainty analysis, risk assessment",

author = "Silvia Tolo and Edoardo Patelli and Michael Beer",

year = "2014",

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doi = "10.1061/9780784413609.061",

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publisher = "American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)",

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booktitle = "Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk",

address = "United States",

note = "2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 ; Conference date: 13-07-2014 Through 16-07-2014",

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Tolo, S, Patelli, E & Beer, M 2014, Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. in JW Hall, S-K Au & M Beer (eds), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), pp. 598-607, 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014, Liverpool, United Kingdom, 13/07/14. https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.061

Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. / Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Edoardo; Beer, Michael.
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. ed. / Jim W. Hall; Siu-Kui Au; Michael Beer. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), 2014. p. 598-607 (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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T1 - Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond

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AU - Beer, Michael

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N2 - The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.

AB - The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.

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KW - reliability analysis

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AN - SCOPUS:84933564927

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BT - Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk

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Tolo S, Patelli E, Beer M. Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. In Hall JW, Au SK, Beer M, editors, Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014. American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). 2014. p. 598-607. (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014). doi: 10.1061/9780784413609.061

Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond

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