Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond

Silvia Tolo, Edoardo Patelli, Michael Beer

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The potentiality of natural hazards to trigger simultaneous failures, leading to technological disasters (i.e. also referred as Natech events), requires tools and methods able to realistically simulate events and interactions between natural phenomena and simultaneous technological failures. The task of the present paper is to highlight the advantages and potentialities of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a risk assessment tool for simultaneous failures triggered by extreme natural events. For this purpose, a simplified BN model for the risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond of facilities subject to extreme weather conditions is provided. The network is then applied to a real-case study integrating different data-set and models available in literature to show the extreme flexibility of this approach and its ability to integrate climate change projections to evaluate future risks.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publicationQuantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
EditorsJim W. Hall, Siu-Kui Au, Michael Beer
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages598-607
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9780784413609
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Jul 2014
Event2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 - Liverpool, United Kingdom
Duration: 13 Jul 201416 Jul 2014

Publication series

NameVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLiverpool
Period13/07/1416/07/14

Keywords

  • ponds
  • decision support systems
  • fuels
  • nuclear power
  • Bayesian analysis
  • reliability analysis
  • radioactive wastes
  • risk analysis
  • uncertainty analysis
  • risk assessment

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  • Cite this

    Tolo, S., Patelli, E., & Beer, M. (2014). Bayesian network approach for risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel pond. In J. W. Hall, S-K. Au, & M. Beer (Eds.), Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 (pp. 598-607). (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014). American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784413609.061