Bayesian belief nets for managing expert judgement and modelling reliability

J.H. Sigurdsson, L.A. Walls, J.L. Quigley

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

91 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Bayesian belief nets (BBNs) provide an effective way of reasoning under uncertainty. They have a firm mathematical background in probability theory and have been used in a variety of application areas, including reliability. BBNs can provide alternative representations of fault trees and reliability block diagrams. BBNs can be used to incorporate expert judgement formally into the modelling process. It has been claimed BBNs may overcome some of the limitations of standard reliability techniques. This paper presents an overview of BBNs and illustrates their use through a simple tutorial on system reliability modelling. The use of BBNs in reliability to date is reviewed. The challenge of using BBNs in reliability practice is explored and areas of research are identified.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)181-190
Number of pages9
JournalQuality and Reliability Engineering International
Volume17
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001

Keywords

  • bayesian belief nets
  • expert judgement
  • reliability modelling
  • reliability engineering
  • management science

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