We analyze basis-momentum, the difference between the past 12 months' momentum in first- and second-nearby futures contracts suggested by Boons and Prado (2018). Since basis-momentum is related to the slope and the curvature over the ranking period, we split the 12-month ranking period into three subperiods—the current month, the past five months, and the six months before the previous five months—and construct three basis-momentums with them. Our results show that these three basis-momentums differ substantially in predicting future returns and have different economic determinants, namely, imbalance in the supply and demand and volatility risk in financial markets.
- commodity futures
- term structure