Abstract
We analyze basis-momentum, the difference between the past 12 months' momentum in first- and second-nearby futures contracts suggested by Boons and Prado (2018). Since basis-momentum is related to the slope and the curvature over the ranking period, we split the 12-month ranking period into three subperiods—the current month, the past five months, and the six months before the previous five months—and construct three basis-momentums with them. Our results show that these three basis-momentums differ substantially in predicting future returns and have different economic determinants, namely, imbalance in the supply and demand and volatility risk in financial markets.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 101997 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Finance Research Letters |
Volume | 43 |
Early online date | 25 Feb 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 30 Nov 2021 |
Keywords
- commodity futures
- basis
- momentum
- basis-momentum
- term structure